For years I searched for details that would show the rate of change between technology innovations and the rate of decline or shift in the number of jobs. I had seen information or predictions circulating about IT jobs, but what I was looking for was an in-depth scientific study that would reveal substantive results across industries. At the time I wasn't in a position to do the research myself. Well - I should be careful of what I ask for.
A recent study by Carl Frey and Michael Osborne (September 2013) examined interactions between 702 job types as defined in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 2010 data set, Machine Learning (ML), and Mobile Robotics (MR). Their results are shocking, but realistic.
According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. We further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation's probability of computerization.
C. Frey, M. Osborne; Oxford University (September 2013)
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| Probability of Computerization |
Technology innovations such as industrial robots, friendly robots, data analytics, low cost sensors, vehicle automation, and prefabrication will continue to impact jobs in transportation, manufacturing, farming, construction, administration, sales, and services in the near term. These are the areas of greatest concern - the 47%. One has to simply catch snips from daily news feeds to confirm the facts. The study cites a plethora of examples showing that the world as we know it has already changed - past tense.
How do we navigate this type of significant shift? By rapidly defining and gaining new skills - skills that aren't in the cross-hairs of ML or MR. The 10,000-Hour Rule (Gladwell, M. (2008); Outliers pp. 35-68) is a challenge but we have time if we start now - right now - to figure out what new skills are required to maintain a sufficient standard of living as the world continues its transformation. Areas requiring a high degree of social and creative intelligence have yet to be conquered by technology. However, it may simply be a matter of time - and human ingenuity - before jobs in these areas also become computerized.
There's a bit of humor in the infographic below, but consider it well. The world has changed.
A. Vital, A. Unak; Funders and Founders (September 2013)
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